5-OBSERVABLES GAP REPORT
GoFast Incident (ATFLIR, 2015) — 5-Observables Gap Analysis
The released 35-second ATFLIR clip shows a small object tracked low over water at apparent high speed. The release preserves the sensor track and pilot commentary but omits the observer-velocity, range-rate, and atmospheric reference data needed to distinguish actual object speed from parallax. Independent analysts have argued the apparent speed is partially a parallax artifact; the released data is insufficient to settle the question either way.
Scoreboard
This release supports evaluation of 0 of 5 observables in the Pentagon framework.
Per-observable analysis
Sudden / instantaneous acceleration
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Calibrated linear acceleration of the object derived from observer GPS-velocity, range-rate, and a per-frame bearing reference.
- Released data
- Sensor angular position and elevation rate are visible in the ATFLIR overlay. Observer aircraft GPS velocity in machine-readable form and continuous range-rate to the target are not included.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- For a ground witness in the same scene, AeriTrax records a per-frame sensor stream at ~50 Hz with magnetometer-derived bearing plus accelerometer angular rate. The witness's stationary frame eliminates the observer-velocity-induced parallax that complicates the F/A-18 platform's track.
Hypersonic velocity without signature
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Synchronized ambient audio at the observer plus an independent observer-velocity estimate.
- Released data
- Audio is intra-cockpit voice. No external microphone track. No external ambient acoustic baseline.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Device microphone recording correlated with capture timestamps, enabling absence-of-acoustic-signature claims to rest on recorded negative evidence.
Low observability
Partial data- Required to evaluate
- Continuous frame coverage at known fps plus a per-capture sensor-blink and gap log.
- Released data
- The 35-second clip is continuous at the ATFLIR's standard frame rate. There is no per-frame sensor-blink ledger that would distinguish 'object exited the field of view' from 'object stopped being detectable.'
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Per-capture frame-timestamp ledger that distinguishes sensor failure from subject disappearance, plus AR-overlay subject track.
Trans-medium travel
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Pre-event and post-event imaging of the water surface or atmospheric-layer transition zones in the object's track.
- Released data
- The water surface is visible in the ATFLIR field of view throughout the clip, but the IR sensor mode and resolution are insufficient to evaluate water-surface interaction. No before/after imaging is preserved.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Pre-burst water-presence classification via on-device coastline polygons; the AR overlay's timeline would anchor the object's altitude trace against the local water surface.
Positive lift / propulsion without surface
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Thermal-IR signature delta over time plus acoustic data sufficient to evaluate propulsion-method consistency.
- Released data
- ATFLIR IR preserves only the object's bulk signature track, not per-component thermal evolution. No acoustic data.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Thermal-context flags via the AR-overlay's sensor stream and acoustic capture from the burst-window microphone — both inputs needed to support or rule out propulsion-method inferences.
What the release contains
The GoFast clip is 35 seconds of ATFLIR video from a US Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet, recorded during the same January 2015 USS Theodore Roosevelt operating period as the Gimbal clip and the broader 2014–2015 East Coast Carrier Strike Group encounters. Sensor-track markings are visible: range (~3.3 nautical miles initially), azimuth, elevation rate, sensor mode. Audio is intra-cockpit pilot reaction.
The Department of Defense authenticated the clip in April 2020, following the December 2017 To The Stars Academy release. It is part of the three “official” DoD-authenticated US Navy UAP clips alongside FLIR1 (Tic Tac) and Gimbal.
What the release does not contain
The release is the sensor feed plus audio. Missing for evaluation:
- Observer aircraft GPS velocity. The apparent speed of the object — the headline framing of the clip — depends critically on separating the F/A-18’s own motion from the object’s motion. The release does not include a machine-readable observer-velocity trace synchronized to the frame timeline.
- Continuous range-rate. ATFLIR initial range is visible (~3.3 NM) but a continuous range-rate signal across the full clip is not preserved. Independent analysts have argued the apparent speed is partially parallax (sensor-line-of-sight rotation rate rather than object ground speed); the released data is insufficient to settle this either way.
- Sea state and surface temperature. The water surface visible in the IR field is the parallax reference for the object’s apparent path. Sea state, surface temperature, and wave-direction context are not included.
- External audio. Ambient acoustic conditions at the F/A-18 external sensor (or at any independent ground observer) are not preserved.
- Companion sensor data. Whether the F/A-18’s radar held a return on the same object at the same range-rate is not in the public release.
What an AeriTrax live capture at a ground witness would have added
AeriTrax is a ground-observer instrument. A credible ground witness in the same airspace would have produced a parallel data trace from a stationary frame, eliminating the observer-velocity-induced parallax question that complicates the GoFast track in particular.
The gap report above lists what AeriTrax would have captured per observable. In aggregate: bearing-stamped sensor stream, ambient audio, frame-timestamp ledger, calibration state, GPS-fix accuracy, ADS-B traffic correlation, satellite-pass cross-reference, all anchored to a signed manifest. The ground witness would not produce a thermal-IR track, but the elimination chain (ADS-B / ephemeris / Remote ID / weather context) applied to the same window would either match the object to a conventional explanation or surface the residual the ATFLIR feed alone cannot.
The release is sufficient to establish that the F/A-18’s sensor recorded an object on a track that looks fast in cockpit view. It is not sufficient to evaluate the Pentagon-framework velocity claim, or any of the other observables, in isolation.