5-OBSERVABLES GAP REPORT
Tic Tac Incident (FLIR1, 2004) — 5-Observables Gap Analysis
The released FLIR1 clip preserves a visual track and FLIR metadata but omits the observer-side sensor classes required to evaluate the Pentagon 5 observables. AeriTrax enumerates what an equivalent live capture at the observer's position would have recorded.
Scoreboard
This release supports evaluation of 0 of 5 observables in the Pentagon framework.
Per-observable analysis
Sudden / instantaneous acceleration
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Per-frame sensor data with calibrated angular reference and a known frame-time ledger at the observer's position.
- Released data
- Visual FLIR track only; no observer-side sensor stream; no per-frame angular reference.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Dense sensor stream at ~50 Hz with magnetometer-derived bearing and accelerometer angular rate, enabling frame-to-frame angular velocity computation against a calibrated reference.
Hypersonic velocity without signature
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Synchronized audio track plus sensor-derived velocity estimate at the observer.
- Released data
- Audio stripped from FLIR release; sensor velocity unavailable.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Device microphone recording correlated with capture timestamps and a sensor-derived velocity envelope, enabling an absence-of-acoustic-signature claim grounded in recorded negative evidence.
Low observability
Partial data- Required to evaluate
- Continuous frame coverage at known fps plus a per-capture sensor-blink and gap log.
- Released data
- Known fps in FLIR metadata; no sensor-blink or frame-gap ledger.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Per-capture frame-timestamp ledger that distinguishes sensor failure from subject disappearance, plus continuous AR-overlay subject track.
Trans-medium travel
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Continuous tracking across boundary surfaces (air/water/space) plus location context and altitude reference.
- Released data
- 76-second air-domain clip; no boundary tracking, no altitude ground truth, no location context for the observed object.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- GPS + barometric altitude logging at the observer's position, water-context indicator from location metadata, and continuous AR-overlay track that flags subject loss-of-frame separately from medium transition.
Anti-gravity lift / propulsion without visible means
Cannot evaluate- Required to evaluate
- Sustained velocity vector and motion envelope reconstructable from the observer's side, comparable to known-aircraft flight envelopes.
- Released data
- Visual track at FLIR frame rate; no observer-side propulsion-detection apparatus; no kinematic record beyond the camera's pan and zoom.
- AeriTrax live capture would have provided
- Trajectory record derived from sensor stream plus AR-overlay subject track over time, plus ADS-B / Remote ID elimination chain at the moment of observation, enabling motion-profile comparison against the known-aircraft envelope.
Method note
This report addresses only the publicly released FLIR1 clip and the data classes preserved in that release. It does not address pilot debrief transcripts, radar tapes, or any classified material that may have been associated with the 2004 Nimitz encounter and which has not been released in a form a third party can independently inspect.
The forensic claim is narrow: the released video does not preserve the data classes required to evaluate the Pentagon 5 observables, and the AeriTrax instrument is designed to preserve those data classes at the moment of observation. Whether the Tic Tac itself satisfies any of the 5 observables is a separate question that the released artifact cannot answer.
What an AeriTrax capture would and would not have changed
An AeriTrax live capture at the pilot’s position would have added: dense sensor stream, audio, frame-time ledger, GPS and barometric altitude, ADS-B / Remote ID elimination chain, calibration state, and a signed chain of custody. It would not have changed the FLIR optical track; it would have surrounded that track with the observer-side data classes the 5-observables framework requires.
That data would not by itself confirm or rule out any observable. It would make each observable independently evaluable by a third party, which the current release does not.